When does a Small Town become a Ghost Town?

Recently i was talking with a friend about our small town travels.  As part of that conversation, he mentioned a recent visit the very small town in rural Minnesota where his grandmother lived when he was a child. He has fond memories of visiting her house with its well-kept yard, as an ideal place that generated many happy and fun-filled memories. Today, that house has been abandoned and has deteriorated to the point of being uninhabitable.  The town itself is no longer self-governing, with an ever-dwindling population. Businesses have shuttered.  Most of the remaining families are older and have lived in the area for generations.  He lamented that he was sad to see this once vibrant small town devolve into its current state. Might this town eventually depopulate to the point of becoming a Ghost Town?

An interesting question – how do small towns decline to the brink of disappearing, and what, if anything, can be done about it? 

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Lifecycle of a Town – A Brief History

Common Stages of a Town’s Life Cycle: Much like any complex organism (i.e. think about a human!), a place evolves through a series of stages.

• Emergence/Infancy: A small settlement begins, often due to a specific resource, trade route, or strategic location. The population is small, and the economy is usually basic (e.g., agriculture, fishing, logging, mining).
• Growth/Juvenile: The town starts to expand in population and economic activity. Basic infrastructure begins to develop, and specialized functions may emerge (e.g., basic housing, a market, a mill).  
• Maturity/Adolescence: The town eventually reaches a “significant” size and complexity. It may develop distinct residential, commercial, and possibly industrial areas. Infrastructure becomes more established, and the economy generally diversifies.  
• Stagnation/Early Maturity: However, like all living things, growth eventually slows down or plateaus. The town may face challenges like aging infrastructure, increased competition from other areas, or shifts in the dominant industries.
• Decline/Senescence: The town experiences a decrease in population and economic activity. Businesses may close, leading to job losses and out-migration. Infrastructure may deteriorate further. This stage can be caused by various factors like deindustrialization, lack of investment, or demographic shifts.
• Renewal/Revitalization (Optional): A town in decline may experience a period of reinvention. This can involve attracting new industries, investing in infrastructure, promoting tourism, or focusing on its unique assets to attract new residents and businesses. If successful, the town can enter a new phase of growth.
• Decay/Necropolis (in extreme cases): If decline is severe and sustained, a town may fall into significant disrepair with widespread abandonment and loss of function… we sometimes refer to this stage as becoming a Ghost Town (see a list of ghost towns in the United States)!

Small Town Lifecycles as viewed in their population history

The description of these stages makes sense to me. The stages are visible when viewing the population history of the small towns we visit. It has been interesting for me to learn about the history of each town we visit, and match population dips and peaks to different chapters of the town’s evolution as a place.

For instance, the populations of Western US mining towns spiked at their beginning, then dropped significantly when mines closed. Many of these old mining towns have disappeared, while others, like Crested Butte, Idaho Springs and Jerome, have reinvented themselves multiple times. Another example is towns like Española and Mapleton, which experienced population stagnation for many decades before being rediscovered as attractive options for commuters traveling to jobs in nearby cities.

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Important Considerations: each place is different!

• Not all towns follow this cycle linearly: Some towns may skip stages or experience periods of growth after decline.
• The pace of the cycle varies: Economic, social, and technological changes can accelerate or slow down these stages.
• External factors play a significant role: Regional, national, and global events can heavily influence a town’s trajectory.
• Human agency matters! The decisions made by residents, leaders, and investors can significantly impact whether a town thrives or declines.

Understanding the concept of a town’s life cycle can help communities anticipate challenges, plan for the future, and implement strategies to promote long-term sustainability and prosperity.

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#1. Economic Shifts:

• Deindustrialization: Loss of manufacturing jobs can devastate towns reliant on a single industry.
• Globalization: Outsourcing and increased competition can lead to business closures.
• Lack of Economic Diversification: Towns overly dependent on one sector (e.g., mining, agriculture) are vulnerable to market changes.
• Job Losses: Businesses relocating or closing down lead to unemployment and population decline.

#2. Demographic Changes:

• Aging Population: Fewer young people moving in can lead to a shrinking workforce and tax base.
• Out-migration: Residents, especially younger generations, may leave for better opportunities elsewhere.
• Low Birth Rates: Natural population decrease contributes to decline.

#3. Social Issues

• High Crime Rates: Can deter residents and businesses.
• Poor Quality of Life: Lack of amenities, healthcare, and educational opportunities can drive people away.
• Social Fragmentation: Lack of community cohesion and engagement can hinder progress.

#4. Poor Planning and Governance

• Lack of Investment: Neglecting infrastructure, housing, and public services can lead to deterioration.
• Poor Urban Planning: Inadequate infrastructure, traffic congestion, and lack of green spaces can make a town less attractive.
• Ineffective Leadership: Failure to adapt to change and attract investment can lead to stagnation.

#5. External Factors

• Natural Disasters: Can decimate a town’s infrastructure and economy.
• Transportation Changes: New highways bypassing a town can reduce business.
• Competition from Other Towns/Cities: More attractive or economically vibrant areas can draw away residents and businesses.

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#1. Strong and Diverse Economy:

• Attracting New Businesses: Creating a business-friendly environment and offering incentives.
• Supporting Local Entrepreneurship: Fostering innovation and small business growth.
• Diversification: Having a mix of industries provides stability.
• Adapting to New Industries: Embracing technology and emerging sectors.

#2. Positive Demographics:

• Attracting New Residents: Offering affordable housing, good schools, and a high quality of life.
• Retaining Young People: Creating opportunities for education, jobs, and social life.
• Welcoming Diversity: An inclusive environment can attract a wider range of people and ideas.

#3. Strong Social Fabric and Community Engagement:

• Active Citizen Participation: Residents involved in local decision-making and initiatives.
• Strong Social Networks: A sense of belonging and community support.
• Volunteerism and Civic Engagement: People willing to contribute to the town’s well-being.

#4. Effective Leadership and Planning:

• Visionary Leadership: Leaders who can anticipate challenges and opportunities.
• Strategic Planning: Having a clear roadmap for the future.
• Investment in Infrastructure and Amenities: Maintaining and improving roads, utilities, parks, and cultural facilities.
• Proactive Adaptation: Embracing change and seeking innovative solutions.

#5. Attractive Quality of Life:

• Good Schools and Healthcare: Essential for families and overall well-being.
• Recreational and Cultural Opportunities: Parks, trails, arts, and entertainment.
• Safe and Clean Environment: Low crime rates and a focus on sustainability.
• Sense of Place and Identity: Preserving local character and history.

#6. Strategic Location and Connectivity:

• Access to Transportation: Highways, airports, and public transit.
• Proximity to Larger Economic Centers: Opportunities for commuting and collaboration.
• Natural Amenities: Access to mountains, lakes, or coastlines can attract tourism and residents.

#7. Openness to Change and Innovation:

• Welcoming New Ideas: Being receptive to different perspectives and approaches.
• Embracing Creativity: Fostering a culture of innovation in business and community initiatives.
• Utilizing Technology: Leveraging digital tools for economic development and communication.

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